India–Pakistan war: The winners and the losers

 

India–Pakistan War 2025: The Winners, the Losers, and the Divide-and-Rule Dilemma

The 2025 India–Pakistan war will be remembered as one of the most intense and symbolically charged conflicts in recent South Asian history. Lasting just days but resonating globally, this short, sharp war revealed much more than military tactics—it exposed geopolitical fissures, upended arms industry narratives, and showcased how the Global North continues to profit from divisions in the Global South. Despite dramatic headlines and nationalist fervor, the real beneficiaries of this war may not be the ones firing the missiles but those selling them.

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Bollywood Meets Battlefield: A War Full of Spectacle

For all the gravity of a conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors, the India–Pakistan war had all the flare of a cinematic thriller. On 7 May, the Modi government initiated ‘Operation Sindoor’, a dramatic missile offensive against Pakistan labeled a counter-terrorist strike. Pakistan responded instantly with ‘Operation Bunyan al-Marsus’, positioning itself as the defender against Indian aggression.

The cultural coding of the war was as striking as the military operations. “Sindoor,” rooted in Hindu tradition as the sacred red mark worn by married women, was instantly translated by Chinese observers as “Operation Vermillion.” This symbolic framing was not lost on the global media, which latched onto the cultural, religious, and nationalistic undertones with fervor.

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The Air Battle That Stole the Show

The heart of the war’s spectacle came on the night of 7 May, when the Indian Air Force (IAF) and Pakistani Air Force (PAF) engaged in what is now dubbed the largest and most high-tech aerial battle of the 21st century. Dozens of 4th and 4.5-generation fighters clashed in a fierce one-hour dogfight, with the skies over Punjab and Kashmir turning into a real-life Top Gun set.

Yet, while Indian and Pakistani militaries gave their all, Chinese military technology quietly stole the spotlight. Pakistan’s Chinese-made J-10C jets, equipped with advanced PL-15 air-to-air missiles and robust electronic warfare suites, reportedly downed several Indian Rafale jets—purchased from France at premium costs.

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Losers in the Arms Market: France's Rafale Falls Flat

The war dealt a serious blow to French defense credibility. India's high-profile Rafale jets, once touted as game-changers, failed spectacularly against the more affordable and battle-hardened Chinese fighters. The performance gap exposed during the dogfights has already begun to affect France's standing in the global arms market, especially across Asia and Africa where cost-effective Chinese technology is gaining favor.

On the other hand, China emerged as a quiet winner, not by engaging directly in the war, but by allowing its hardware to do the talking. The J-10C’s successful performance has reportedly triggered renewed interest from countries considering alternatives to Western aircraft—a significant shift in global defense dynamics.

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India’s Geopolitical Clout Takes a Hit

Despite launching the conflict with confidence and strong messaging, India emerged politically bruised. The international community remained wary, with the UN playing a minimal role and the United States maintaining a calculated neutrality, avoiding any firm support for its strategic partner. India’s image as a regional stabilizer took a backseat as Pakistan—despite its economic challenges—successfully positioned itself as a victim of aggression.

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Pakistan Celebrates, But Caution Remains

Pakistan, meanwhile, claimed a symbolic and strategic victory. The success of its air force and the perceived failure of India's Western weapons boosted domestic morale and international sympathy. But long-term gains remain uncertain. While Islamabad may celebrate a tactical win, it continues to grapple with deep economic and political instability that a short-term military success cannot fix.

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Divide and Rule 2.0: The Global North’s Real Victory

While South Asia burned, the Global North quietly cheered from the sidelines. The brief war spurred arms sales, media frenzy, and deepened divisions in a region where unity could challenge global hierarchies. From weapons manufacturers in Paris and Beijing to defense contractors in Washington, the war was less about ideology and more about profit margins.

The conflict underscores how external powers continue to capitalize on regional instability. Instead of fostering peace, major players benefit from a militarized status quo. India and Pakistan, both rising nations with young populations and pressing development needs, are once again caught in a zero-sum game that ultimately serves foreign interests.

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Lessons from a War With No Winners

The 2025 India–Pakistan war revealed stark truths about modern warfare, military technology, and geopolitical manipulation. While jets flew and missiles struck, the biggest victories were scored far from the battlefield—in boardrooms and foreign capitals. For India and Pakistan, the way forward must involve introspection, de-escalation, and a renewed commitment to strategic autonomy.

Only by rejecting the divide-and-rule frameworks of old can the Global South truly shape a future on its own terms.

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Keywords: India-Pakistan war 2025, Operation Sindoor, Operation Bunyan al-Marsus, Chinese J-10C vs Rafale, Pakistan Air Force vs Indian Air Force, South Asia war 2025, Global North divide-and-rule, French Rafale failures, Chinese military hardware success, Indo-Pak air battle, Global South conflicts.